Implied Probability Formula:
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Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage that represents how likely an outcome is to occur according to the odds. It helps bettors assess the value in betting lines.
The calculator uses the implied probability formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula converts decimal odds to their implied probability equivalent. For example, odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance (1/2.00 × 100).
Details: Understanding implied probability helps bettors identify value bets by comparing the bookmaker's assessment with their own probability estimates.
Tips: Enter decimal odds (e.g., 2.50 for 6/4 fractional odds). The calculator will show the implied probability as a percentage.
Q1: What's the difference between probability and implied probability?
A: Probability is the actual chance of an event occurring, while implied probability is what the odds suggest the chance is.
Q2: Why do implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?
A: Bookmakers build in an overround (vigorish) to ensure profit, making the total implied probability exceed 100%.
Q3: How can I use implied probability to find value bets?
A: If your assessed probability is higher than the implied probability, you may have found a value bet.
Q4: What's the implied probability of odds 1.50?
A: 1/1.50 × 100 = 66.67% implied probability.
Q5: Can I use this for American odds?
A: This calculator uses decimal odds. American odds require a different conversion formula.